What to expect in the electric bicycle industry
While the electric bicycle industry has been showing impressive growth for the last several years, 2020 witnessed rapid gains in the industry, unlike anything before. Here are the top five predictions for 2021.
Wave of affordable mid-drive e-bikes
Mid-drive e-bikes, which have a centrally-mounted motor that powers the e-bike through its bicycle gears, have long been dominated by industry heavyweights like Bosch.
Popular mid-drive e-bikes have offered high-quality drive trains and mid to top-shelf components to match. But that has traditionally kept the prices high, often in the $4,000+ range.
However, 2021 is likely to see a new wave of affordably priced mid-drive electric bikes. There are plenty of Asian mid-drive suppliers that are growing their market share and helping drive down prices.
We’re actually already starting to see this trend play out with new entries from companies like Ride1Up, who just unveiled the Ride1Up Prodigy electric bike. It is likely the most affordable Brose-powered mid-drive e-bike on the market at just $2,195. (And for the record, expect to see more e-bikes like this unveiled in 2021, and the inclusion of non-EU motors will only intensify this trend.
More e-bikes with small diameter fat tires
2021 will be the year that smaller diameter fat tires really catch on.This trend began with the electric moped wave of 2020, where small diameter fat tires became a popular way to provide motorbike-style handling and design.
Other e-bikes like the popular $899 Lectric XP have adopted these small diameter fat tires in the company’s folding bikes, forgoing expensive suspension in favor of cheaper air cushions of fat tires.
Not only do fat tires provide extra cushion for the ride, but the small diameter 20″ versions minimize the extra bulk that comes with fat tires. They prevent the e-bike from growing too heavy and unwieldy. They also help designers reduce the stand-over height, making the e-bikes more accessible to a wider range of riders.
Small diameter fat tires won’t replace traditional 26″ and 700c tires found on many e-bikes. But for anyone not worried about extreme efficiency, their advantages are too numerous to ignore. That means e-bike manufacturers are going to find a growing demand for this style of e-bike.
E-bike battery breakthroughs for 2021
Nothing major new will happen to e-bike batteries in 2021.Other than small incremental increases in capacity, there will be no major breakthroughs in e-bike batteries. Incremental increases in capacity will simply be the result of manufacturers shoving in a few more cells.
The most popular format of battery cell for e-bike batteries, the 18650, hasn’t seen a meaningful capacity increase beyond 3.5Ah in years. Some e-bikes use the slightly larger 20700 and 21700 format cells, but these are much rarer and don’t offer much advantage for packing in more capacity.
That doesn’t mean we won’t be zooming around e-bikes sporting solid-state batteries in the next 5-10 years, but it won’t happen in 2021.
Long waits for e-bikes
Unfortunately, expect to wait a while for new electric bikes in 2021, especially the first half.
The COVID-19 pandemic positively wrecked e-bike supply chains saw devastating lock-downs in 2020. While those countries got back to work sooner than much of the west, they were smacked with unprecedented spikes in demand as soon as their factories reopened.
Supply chains are SLOWLY starting to catch up. Many e-bike manufacturers are still being quoted lead times of a year or more on components such as brakes and handlebars.
Popular e-bike companies have struggled to keep e-bikes in stock, leading to the second half of 2020 becoming the year of the e-bike back-order.
It will take most of the year for that to improve.. Expect many e-bike manufacturers to continue working on a pre-sale or back-ordered basis.
More e-bike startups
2021 is likely to see a boom in new e-bike startups, especially from Asia. More like random Indiegogo campaigns and “let’s see if this venture works” type of startups. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Some very interesting e-bikes have come out of these types of ventures.
The massive increase in demand for e-bikes will be the largest driver behind a wave of new e-bike startups. It will be hard for many entrepreneurs to see the market demand and not think to themselves, “Maybe I should start an e-bike brand.”
2021 should be an interesting year for e-bikes. We may not see any massive battery advancements, but prices should continue their slow crawl downwards, and new products.
Adapted from:
by Micah Toll, Jan. 31st 2021
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